Computer Crime Research Center


Aspects of the suppression of cybercrime

Date: September 07, 2004
Source: Computer Crime Research Center
By: Victor Sabadash

Criminological projection is a process of well-founded learning of future state, level, dynamics and structure of criminality due to examination of tendencies of this phenomenon in the past.

Renowned scientists observe that “it is necessary to consider and examine not only data on criminality, but also data characterizing the development (modification) of other social phenomena, one way or another influencing on criminality: social political phenomena, organizational legal, economic, demographic, etc.”

Scientists distinguish short-term, medium-term and long-term forecasts. According to V. Kudryavtsev, “general long-term forecasts define the ‘strategy’ of the suppression of crime. More certain and relatively short-term forecasts of the state, dynamics and structure of anti-social phenomena are necessary to determine an every-day tactics of the suppression and to elaborate the most efficient measures on preventing crimes.”

As regards forecasting the suppression of cybercrime, the sphere of high technologies development is being evolved so impetuously and hence it is necessary to foresee shorter periods of time rather than in cases of other crimes.

Such methods of criminological forecasting as extrapolation and expert evaluation method are the most applicable to increase the efficiency of the suppression of crimes in the sphere of high technologies.

Extrapolation is the most usual method of forecasting. It is based on the assumption that present development will continue in the same direction and with unvarying speed (or alternatively, with steadily growing or diminishing speed, i.e. a logarithmic extrapolation).

The basis of an extrapolation will be knowledge on the recent development of the phenomenon. You will need at least two (although usually you have more) sequential observations made at known points of time.

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