Computer Crime Research Center


Planning and forecasting of the suppression of cybercrime

Date: September 07, 2004
Source: Computer Crime Research Center
By: Victor Sabadash

Criminological forecasting is a process of well-founded examination of the future state, level, dynamics and structure of criminality due to the study of tendencies of this phenomenon in the past.

Renowned scientists observe that “it is necessary to consider and examine not only data on criminality, but also data characterizing the development (modification) of other social phenomena, in one way or another influencing on criminality: social political, organizational legal, economic, demographic phenomena, etc.”

Scientists distinguish short-term, medium-term and long-term forecasts. According to V. Kudryavtsev, “general long-term forecasts define the ‘strategy’ of the suppression of crime. More certain and relatively short-term forecasts of the state, dynamics and structure of anti-social phenomena are necessary to determine every-day tactics of the suppression and to elaborate the most efficient measures on preventing crimes.”

As regards forecasting the suppression of cybercrime, the sphere of high technologies development is being evolved so impetuously, hence it is necessary to foresee shorter periods of time rather than in cases of other crimes.

Such methods of criminological forecasting as extrapolation and expert evaluation method are the most applicable to increase the efficiency of the suppression of crimes in the sphere of high technologies.

Extrapolation is the most usual method of forecasting. It is based on the assumption that present development will continue in the same direction and with unvarying speed (or alternatively, with steadily growing or diminishing speed, i.e. a logarithmic extrapolation).

The basis of an extrapolation will be knowledge on the recent development of the phenomenon. You will need at least two (although usually you have more) sequential observations made at known points of time.

Expert evaluation method lies in learning the opinion of scientific and practical workers selected according to certain features (working experience, qualification, the sphere of scientific interests, etc.)

The modern state of the criminalistics development is also described by elevation of the forecasting function, is drawn to substantially extend its cognitive sphere, to increase theoretic value and practical meaning of investigations, to improve the quality of theoretical developments and practical recommendations.

It is advisable to consider the term “criminalistic forecasting” in two following aspects:
- as a social activity, to realize regulations of criminalistic prognostics in the practice using more effective prognostic techniques; activity directed to obtain information on main trends and ways of criminalistic objects’ development, their future state;
- as a field of legal (juridical) forecasting, representing a kind of foresight in the sphere of the suppression of crime and reflecting the specifics of objects in cognition and the background of their development, object region of the research and the character of regularities of the forecasted value, and also goals and tasks of the forthcoming forecasting.

Since forecasting is an essential part of criminalistics, objects of forecasting are the science of criminalistics itself and the objects of its cognition are as follows:
- crime (a functional side of the criminal activity) and caused sequels;
- activity on revealing, investigating and preventing crimes.

The results of prognostic investigations are the forecasts: information on probable directions and trends of some object’s development, information on alternative ways and terms of the emergence of certain features of the object (state, structure, etc.). These forecasts can be divided into search and normative, constructive and destructive, current (operational), short and long term, group and individual.

The realization of criminalistic forecasts in the judicial-investigative and investigative activities is directed to improve the process of planning and managing the investigation, inquiry, court hearing, to raise the efficiency of investigative actions.

Planning of the prevention of crimes is the activity of the corresponding governmental bodies to elaborate and implement a system of measures aimed at creation and development of positive objective and subjective conditions that exclude or prevent any opportunity of the deviant behavior of people. The target of crime prevention is achieving or retaining trends of decline in crime and positive changes of its character, structure in the period being projected.

We believe that criminological projects, as an integral part of social-economic planning, could bring the best results in the sphere of the suppression of cybercrime. It is common knowledge that crime represents a multiple-factor social phenomenon, conditioned by the complex of social phenomena and processes. Therein, each phenomenon or process is not isolated and they are running as a whole. The compounds of interacting negative phenomena may refer to various fields of social activity. Accordingly, there should be a scientifically-grounded complex of social, economic, political, organizational, socio-psychological measures to correspond to the quantitative and qualitative variety of factors conditioning crimes. Therefore, the success of fighting crimes depends on solving the complex of social tasks.

The analysis of experience shows that the following are some general lacks negatively affecting the efficiency of planning of crime prevention:
- underestimation of danger to the modern society posed by computer crimes in developing and implementing economic, political, ideological and other general plans of actions;
- disorder in departmental, interdepartmental and criminological sections of social development plans, it leads to doubling and in the number of cases to irresponsibility during completion of plans of actions;
- absence of systematic control over implementation of measures under criminological section of the plan on the part of governmental and social organizations, whose rights and responsibilities are not regulated by legal norms;
- development of criminological sections of plans without preliminary (prior to plan) researches into cybercrime by way of simplification of ill-grounded measures concerning several sides of administrative bodies’ activity within one document;
- absence of legal norms to regulate the procedure of development, concordance and control over implementation of measures of criminological section of the plan.

Planning of pre-trial investigation determines a clear management of investigator’s activity. The collaboration with other police departments is one of the conditions to favour efficient investigation of crimes in the sphere of high technologies. Information on the event being investigated and its elements gives the main basis to plan the investigation. The specified information can be received from different sources (investigative activity and work).

Investigation planning includes investigator’s activity to examine and analyze facts, determine tasks, ways and means of solution. Objective factor of investigation planning is evident by the fact that this activity is based on facts on committed crime. Subjective factor manifests itself in the fact that planning is carried out by a person. Due to educational level, experience of practical work, general experience, planning is conducted differently. Subjective factor comes out also during direct execution of preliminary planned actions. Therein, the investigator should rapidly respond to changes in situation and conditions, where he carries out separate investigative actions and in the whole pre-trial investigation. It means that planned investigation activity can be modified and should sensitively and flexibly react to changes of circumstances, appearing of new information on the event being investigated and its elements.

Indeed, criminal procedural law affects the process of investigation planning and its direct implementation. Above all, the law prescribes investigation tasks, facts in proof to be posed and solved during pre-trial investigation. Besides, the law defines ways and methods that allow solving tasks posed before the investigation and to obtain necessary facts.

As regards investigation of computer crime, planning should include the following:
- definition of investigation tasks;
- analysis of contents of all brought cases and establishing all circumstances (questions) ensuing and to be proven;
- definition of investigative actions, work and other checking and preventing measures which are necessary to examine set out leads, to clear up ensuing questions, to define relevant facts and to solve other investigative tasks;
- definition of certain executors of the above stated measures, terms and consequences of their implementation.

Basing on the available information, the investigator determines goals and tasks to be solved during pre-trial investigation to establish facts in proof. On the assumption of tasks aroused during the investigation, he determined ways and methods to solve them. The investigator should determine what investigative actions and other measures are to be taken to obtain information, necessary for the process of investigation.

During investigation of computer crime it is necessary to carry out the following checking actions with the purpose to clear up the grounds to instigate a criminal case: obtaining explanations, examination of the crime scenery, seizure of needed documents and...

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2004-09-14 15:59:20 - i think this website is brilliant The one
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